NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere in ABQ

Today the forecast teams are in the ABQ, AMA, and LBB WFOs.  The Texas WFOs will likely have scattered severe storms develop a bit later this afternoon.  In ABQ, upslope flow combined with forcing for ascent by the incoming upper level low triggered thunderstorm growth early Tuesday afternoon.  The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model helped the ABQ forecasters decide to issue a warning around 1830 UTC (although technical issues preventd the warning from being issued).  Figure 1 shows an animation of MRMS composite reflectivity and ProbSevere output of the storm of interest, as well as another storm a bit further north later intensified.  The forecaster mentioned they liked how the ProbSevere model diagnosed moderate satellite cooling rates and glaciation rates, which helped provide good lead-time and how neighboring weaker storms had considerably lower probabilities, which increased confidence.

Figure 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 1816 - 1842 UTC 05 May 2015 over the southern ABQ WFO.  

-Sieglaff