Overlaying Radar with Lightning Jump

To tie in with a previous post of overlaying two image products (and adjusting the transparency), I tried that out with the OAX radar and the Lightning Jump product.
On its own, the color table for the lightning jump makes the jumps stand out really well but unfortunately it covers up the radar data.

 By adjusting the transparency (70% on Lightning Jump), I found the combined use of the two products to be much more useful.

Unfortunately with the colors in the current table, they become washed out at time with the greens and yellows.  While it isn't as big of an issue with smaller cells (first image below), but when the convection is more widespread (bottom image from west Texas) it makes it harder to see with the colortable.

-SRF

Day 1 Initial Set-up

Well, the first post of day 1 and I have to admit I feel a bit overwhelmed with the amount of information and data to look at as we are supposed to look at all the available experimental products as we assess the environment for the day and also build procedures for the rest of the week.  I think I will feel a bit more comfortable when we are focused a bit more and looking at specific products within the warning operations environment.

Initial look at the big picture shows a deep trough over the desert southwest with somewhat diffluent flow across the southern plains with downstream ridging over the Mississippi Valley.




A surface frontal boundary was noted across north central KS with possible weak low lifting northeastward through southeast NE.  Some weak convergence resulting in developing convection across northeast KS as of 19z.  Best instability at 19z based on the GOES-R LAP algorithm was centered over western OK into southern KS and expanding into the southern part of Topeka's Forecast Area, which seemed reasonable when compared to the RAP13 analysis at 19z.  There has been little if any lightning in the convection over northeast KS to this point so have not evaluated the lightning data too much.




An initial look at the convection initiation algorithm off the GOES-R over northeast KS did not reveal much with generally less than 20 % initiation values leading up to the convection that has developed.  There is a fairly dense layer of cirrus overhead which is likely obscuring the ability of the GOES-R to detect and leading to the low percentages, which is a limiting factor of this product.

Jack Bauer

Visible Satellite with Overlay of GOES-R LAP CAPE

Being a person that likes overlaying multiple images, I found overlaying the Visible Satellite with the GOES-R LAP CAPE product (transparency of 50%) to be useful in situational awareness. Putting the data into a loop provided an easy way to view the increasing instability over eastern Kansas under clear skies and where dewpoints were rising from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. -SRF  Note: It looks like you need to click on the image to see the loop.

Cirrus Affecting Convective Initiation Product in Kansas

Was hoping to use the Convective Initiation (CI) product closer to the area in eastern Kansas, but unfortunately cirrus in the area limited the ability to use the product.  The first image below (1730Z Visible Satellite) indicates the product was trying to indicate convection development, but then cirrus really started to contaminate the area and led to no highlights as the convection started to develop (middle image at 1830Z). The bottom image (1900Z) shows more mature convection on visible satellite. -SRF

CI vs Radar

Comparing CI at 1900z with 1930z radar. Looking at north central Eddy County, south-east Dawson County and south-west Borden County. So far so apparent correlation.

-Lynford

Changing Colors

As always, the first order of business when you're working at a new office or AWIPS system - build build build! Currently working on procedures and my personal favorite, custom color tables. If I was thinking ahead I would've brought some from home.

One of the color tables I always change: CAPE. The default "gridded data" color table that AWIPS loves so much just doesn't fit well.

That magenta really stands out, as if I really care about areas of zero CAPE.

After:

Much better! I did something similar for the Lifted Index: making everything above about 2C transparent.

Now back to the real fun: convection blowing up in my CWA Du Jour (Midland, TX) and clearing AlertViz banner after AlertViz banner.
-V. Darkbloom

Initial thoughts on convection at Topeka ~19Z

A quick glance at the surface obs and SPC mesoanlyses indicates a weak boundary located across the Topeka CWA, stretching WSW to ENE.




GOES-R layer CAPE indicates the sharp instability gradient across the CWA with CAPE near 1300 J/KG for southeastern counties (Coffey/Anderson/Franklin) with a few hundredths of CAPE for the northwestern counties where weak showers/thunderstorms pushed through the area earlier today. Convective Initiation suggests low probability of formation moving into the south-central portions.

KTWX radar indicates weak convection across Dickinson county with minimal lightning activity (less than 5-7 flashes/min and 1-2 CGs over the past 30 mins). These storms have greater potential for future development as they move east towards greater instability as noted in the GOES-R products.

Brick Tamland

First Blog

My first ever blog. Figures...it's about wx.

The Surface parcel Lifted Index is in Kelvin. Please change the units to Dec C!

GOES-R Demonstrations in the 2015 HWT Spring Experiment have begun!

This week marks the start of GOES-R Demonstrations in the Hazardous Weather Testbed during the 2015 Spring Experiment in Norman, OK. The experiment will run the weeks of May 4, May 11, May 18, June 1, June 8 and consist of 5 NWS forecasters and 1 broadcast meteorologist per week. Each week, Monday will primarily serve as a spin-up day, Tues-Thurs will be our core days of activities, while Friday's half day will not consist of any forecast activities. GOES-R products under evaluation this year include: GOES Sounder TPW, LPW, and Derived Atmospheric Stability Indices using GOES-R ABI Legacy Atmospheric Profile (LAP) algorithm, GOES-R Convective Initiation, ProbSevere Model, PGLM Total Lightning, Lightning Jump Algorithm, and GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSOR) 1-min Imagery. The automated Overshooting Top Detection product will be demonstrated with the 1-min imagery. Additionally, NUCAPS soundings from the Suomi NPP satellite will be evaluated.

Please follow this blog for participant posts from within the HWT.

You can find more details regarding the scope of the GOES-R demonstrations at the following link: http://www.goes-r.gov/users/docs/pg-activities/2015/HWT%20Spring%20Experiment%202015%20GOESR%20Plan%20FINAL.pdf

- Bill Line, SPC and HWT Satellite Liaison 

Convection in the heart of Texas

An amplified trough and associated lee cyclone developed in west-central Texas Sunday afternoon, with a dryline generating strong supercell thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded their outlook to a moderate risk at 16:30 UTC for mainly large hail and strong tornadoes.

The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model was able to capture the strong initial convection along the dryline, with GOES East IR observations, as the satellite transitioning to rapid-scan operation.

In a very unstable and moderately sheared environment, a strong normalized vertical growth rate and less than 0.5" of MESH gave the first storm of the day a probability of severe of 34% at 17:32Z (see animation below). Ten minutes later, MESH was 0.65" and the probability accordingly rose to 58%. By 17:50Z, MESH was 0.85" and the probability was 81%. The first severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 17:52Z, 10 min after the first probability ≥ 50%.

Two counties to the south, strong vertical growth and moderate storm-top glaciation rate, along with 0.52" of MESH, combined for a 55% probability at 17:58Z. Four minutes later, the probability jumped to 72%, and 6 min after that (18:08Z) it increased to 80%, as MESH increased to 0.8". This storm was first severe-warned at 18:21Z. Softball hail was later reported from this storm, in Shackelford County.

Further south along the dryline, another storm had very strong satellite growth rates, and probability of severe of 83% by 18:26Z (MESH = 0.62"). This storm was warned at 15 min later at 18:41Z. This storm would go on to produce grapefruit-sized hail and large tornadoes SW of Forth Worth, TX.

ProbSevere was able to highlight the severe potential in these storms up to 20 min before the first warnings were issued. It should be noted that ProbSevere is meant to be a 'quick-look' additional guidance to forecasters, and not provide a warn/no-warn decision at some magical probability threshold. Future development of ProbSevere will incorporate other NWP, radar, and possibly satellite fields to hone in on a probability of tornado in the very short term.

John Cintineo

UW-CIMSS