Initial thoughts on convection at Topeka ~19Z

A quick glance at the surface obs and SPC mesoanlyses indicates a weak boundary located across the Topeka CWA, stretching WSW to ENE.




GOES-R layer CAPE indicates the sharp instability gradient across the CWA with CAPE near 1300 J/KG for southeastern counties (Coffey/Anderson/Franklin) with a few hundredths of CAPE for the northwestern counties where weak showers/thunderstorms pushed through the area earlier today. Convective Initiation suggests low probability of formation moving into the south-central portions.

KTWX radar indicates weak convection across Dickinson county with minimal lightning activity (less than 5-7 flashes/min and 1-2 CGs over the past 30 mins). These storms have greater potential for future development as they move east towards greater instability as noted in the GOES-R products.

Brick Tamland