Day 1 Initial Set-up

Well, the first post of day 1 and I have to admit I feel a bit overwhelmed with the amount of information and data to look at as we are supposed to look at all the available experimental products as we assess the environment for the day and also build procedures for the rest of the week.  I think I will feel a bit more comfortable when we are focused a bit more and looking at specific products within the warning operations environment.

Initial look at the big picture shows a deep trough over the desert southwest with somewhat diffluent flow across the southern plains with downstream ridging over the Mississippi Valley.




A surface frontal boundary was noted across north central KS with possible weak low lifting northeastward through southeast NE.  Some weak convergence resulting in developing convection across northeast KS as of 19z.  Best instability at 19z based on the GOES-R LAP algorithm was centered over western OK into southern KS and expanding into the southern part of Topeka's Forecast Area, which seemed reasonable when compared to the RAP13 analysis at 19z.  There has been little if any lightning in the convection over northeast KS to this point so have not evaluated the lightning data too much.




An initial look at the convection initiation algorithm off the GOES-R over northeast KS did not reveal much with generally less than 20 % initiation values leading up to the convection that has developed.  There is a fairly dense layer of cirrus overhead which is likely obscuring the ability of the GOES-R to detect and leading to the low percentages, which is a limiting factor of this product.

Jack Bauer