More NearCast

overlaying the vertical theta-e difference with sfc obs really helps to identify and highlight boundaries and possible convective development. This is conjunction with a satellite image is a real good procedure for SA. Adding the CI product further enhances the areas within the CU filed that may develop further. For pre-planning ahead of convection this could be a real good tool.
jason anderson

nearcast

not seeing much with the 500 or 780 mb equiv pot temp, but the difference shows a nice gradient in ne OK. there is a CU field in that area so convection is certainly possible. this does not at all lined up with the ounwrf which shows convection developing at the current time (~20z) further back to the west along the ok/ks border where more persistent cloud cover has been.

jason anderson

EWP Operations Update – Monday 6/2 – 2:37 pm

Overview:
Today is the first day of operations for the 4th (and final) week of the EWP Big Experiment.  Thus, we will begin operations in training / orientation mode.

Forecast:

In the upper troposphere, relatively zonal flow exists across the CONUS.  Thus, significant moisture return has commenced, finally solving the moisture problem the Plains has seen this spring season.  Vertical wind shear is relatively weak, but the presence of a strong elevated-mixed layer will augment instability and the associated probability of severe weather – especially west.

Two areas of probable severe convection exist: one in the Upper Mississippi / Ohio valley region and the other in the Southern Plains.  Given the presence of upper cloudiness to the east, and the lack of a lightning mapping array, we have elected to operate in the Southern Plains today.  We have localized the forecasters to two domains: Norman and Wichita.

Gabe Garfield
Week 4 Coordinator

WEEK 3 FEEDBACK (including Day 4)

Day 1, 2 and 3 Feedback is included in the respective Daily Summery posts. This post includes feedback from the Week 3 final debrief.

-Bill Line

Simulated Satellite Imagery

- Maybe for last week, show nssl wrf reflectivity as well and show things that you can see in the synthetic sat imagery that you cant in reflectivity

- I like it, I used it every day. 

- Model issues

    o It was off with strength of storm, position, timing sometimes. 

    o Cirrus and low clouds often out

- The technique is great, to be able to visualize what the satellite would look like if this model were to pan out. I use nam in my office. It is nice to show low clouds and cirrus shields in the model. if you come out on day shift and it is showing supercells later in day, I would look at early part of forecast to give me more or less confidence in later forecast

NearCast

- I think it is a benefit to have

- I think at the very least it helped to visualize moisture and instability very well

- How to use it from day to day changed. First day, storms initiated as theta-e tongue came in. Next day, theta-e was feeding directly into storm, and it popped up. Next over DC, entire theta-e field, storms followed along with the movement of theta-e

- Go to product between warnings, see what the environment is. Continues to tell you if storm is gonna be in field where it continues to explode, or will it move out of it. 

- I can see it being useful as I come in in morning, it fills gap in sounding data, gives you idea of scope of convective instability.

- Its observed data so I really like it

- I though the model forecasts did well too when there wasn’t missing data.

- Forecasters agreed it would be neat to see winds plotted

GOES-R CI

- I agree it would be very useful in non-severe situations.

- It had its hits and misses

- If doing esta update, might be good to say precip chances might be increased in a certain region

- I couldn't get a handle on a threshold where this is when convection would go. I couldn't rely on it

- I think it would work for SPC mesoscale forecaster

- Instead of individual colors for each object, highlight a general area of interest where convection is more likely to go.

- It is a good situational awareness tool

- Neighborhood approach, larger spatial probabilities might be a good idea. Instead of showing probs for each individual object

Prob Severe

- I like it: I used it every day. The trends were very useful. I liked seeing the data when I sampled (I looked at trends in the numbers). It helped me to zone in on certain storms (broadcaster)

- Yesterday I used it fairly heavily.  Storms moving form KY to TN, what happened was because it was multicellular, there was an adjacent storm that prob severe latched on to, and the product took over that other cell too. So it was then difficult to key in on that particular storm. I wanted to increase lead time, but I wasn't able to in this particular instance. There was some lag time too

- A way to have a sub-scale tracking to make sure to track individual cells to try alleviate merge issue

- Would you use in your office: All yes

- It at least brings your attention to storms to watch

- You start with all tilts. From a spatial awareness perspective. Id be worried about new forecasters getting lazy, relying on these derived products. You still need to get them used to using the base products. Similar to other products.

- But I think it could be treated as any other algorithm I don’t think that ^ is a problem

- There have been times im interrogating a storm in base data, this algorithm would point out a storm that I should look at. It catches things the human would miss.

- What would you like to see added: you don’t want it to get too cluttered. I like the compactness of it. Other environmental attributes could  help that would tell you what type of severe. DCAPE

- I would like to see effective SRH added. 

- Would you like to see probs of individual hazards: all yes

- I could envision a 4 panel. Over all prob severe, prob tor, prob wind, prob hail.

    o And have different fields under each

OTD

- I really tried to use it yesterday. One of limitations was the 15-30 min updates. It wasn't terribly useful in the hot seat. Might be better for mesoscale forecaster.

- I see this being most used in places where you don’t have radar. Oceans, aviation even more so (route planes around this). 

- I see it being much more useful, viable with higher temperal, spatial resolution. (super rapid scan with goes-r)

PGLM and LJ

- It was very useful in Denver day. Seeing total lightning and LJ

- I could see myself using it in warning operations. Monitoring health of updraft

- Pulse. In OK you see storms pulsing. Total lightning showed this. within 10-30 min I can guarantee something will happened

- In W Texas, severe winds were reported. Cell merger > LJ > wind

- LJ twice in a row, prob severe was trending up, I warned, big jump on warning

- Because it is one minute data, I was able to see jump before next radar scan

- I view storms as how much energy they can output, lightning kind of gauges how much energy is in the storm > hail, wind, etc. Updraft > more ice, static electricity, lightning.

- As a broadcaster, it would be nice to have total lightning, because it shows more than just CG.

- LJ display: I was fine with it, I was fine with sigma jumps

Tracking Tool

- I think it has a lot of potential, I was excited to use it, but it dissipated me.

- I like that you have a graph that pops up. I prefer it to be side by side

- If you close it, it would be nice to be able to pull the box back up

- I would like the ability to take the box out, I like screen real estate. 

- I think this type of tool (to show meteogram) is useful. I like the circles. I think it would be useful to track many different fields

- I prefer when you clear, for box to go away.

- In warning mode, I could see myself using this. 

- Its awesome to be able to use the individual points without having to move the whole track

SRSOR

- Do you see it having an impact on my decision making process (4 yes’s).

- Watching area, I could see growth in the 1-minute data, it helped to gain more confidence, I need to pay attention to this area

- In office, many times waiting 15 minutes for next scan. With 1 minute data, you can see convective attempts, failures, dead anvils.

- Would you be disappointed if goes-r was launched and we did not get 1-minute data? (all yes’s)

Daily Summary: Week 3, Day 4 (May 22nd, 2014)

Another solid day in the HWT as our forecasters remained in LWX and OHX for the duration of their shift. All experimental products (yes! even OUNWRF) were evaluated today.

Our LWX team was able to evaluate pre-CI potential using GOES-R CI, LAPS, NearCast, and ProbSevere. When storms got close to LWX our team (Grant and Danielle) were able to use DCLMA network to evaluate total lightning and lightning jumps. The were several preliminary reports of hail and wind damage in the region passed along by our volunteers which helped forecasters validate what they were seeing in the experimental datasets.

2_Large_GIFS

Our OHX team waited anxiously as slow moving storms fired in the LMK and PAH CWAs with NW flow pushing slowly into the CWA. Once again, forecasters had some time pre-CI to get a feel for how the GOES-R and LAPS products were able to diagnose areas of instability and identify storm growth and intensity. The Overshooting Top Detection product was evaluated frequently in conjunction with the Super-Rapid Scan imagery in this domain with a fair amount of detections occurring today.

Furthermore, our visiting forecaster from the Air Force Weather Agency, James McCormick, worked with Gabe to thoroughly evaluate OUNWRF across the entire domain. Many thanks to him for giving us a focused set of eyes on this!

-Darrel Kingfield
EWP Week 3 Coordinator

While not necessarily in my area of interest today, my attention was drawn to PAH’s CWA at around 22Z when the CI product indicated a 70% probability of convection initiating. Admittedly, I didn’t place too much stock in it as there have been false probabilities showing up this afternoon (plus it is outside of my area of focus). However, within the next half hour, convection developed in the same area.

SRSOR_CI_GIF

~Linda

ProbSVR Showed Downward Trend

With a significant increase in ProbSvr and good environmental conditions Linda issued a severe thunderstorm warning for a storm in northern TN. ProbSvr at this time was near 90% at this time.

Two volume scans later, while the reflectivity was still fairly significant the ProbSvr dropped to 48 percent. Two more volume scans later the reflectivity looked like the above image where the storm was obviously weak. This downward trend in ProbSvr was great since it was near the southern end of the severe thunderstorm warning and another warning decision was near.

-JB

Simulated Satellite this afternoon

When looking back at Simulated Satellite today and seeing how it performed, it actually did very well.  It was on point with the timing of initiation of convection and the location of the start of the storm as well as how they moved.  The only thing it really lacked was the strength of the storm.  I would use this product for forecasting purposes! ~Vollmar

Experimental warning issued based on…

…the prob. severe model and SRSOR as well as radar interrogation. The prob. severe model latched on to a storm near the intersection of Sumner, Trousdale, and Macon counties at 2212Z but I wasn’t able to view the actual prob. severe model product until after 2217Z, leading to the warning not being issued with even greater lead time, as I had hoped to be able to do. While waiting for the updated prob. severe model product to come in, I analyzed the super rapid scan imagery and noticed the growing cloud tops between approximately 2207Z through ~2223Z. After the warning was issued, I re-analyzed SRSOR and an OT was detected in the vicinity of the cluster of storms.

~Linda

SRSOR_OT_GIF

Convection Moving Along Theta-E Gradient

Convection continues to develop and move southeast out of KY into TN. The strongest storms are moving southeast within the greatest convective instability indicated on the NearCast model. Although the model has holes across the OH and TN Valleys, extrapolation of the southern gradient of the instability axis indicates that the storms on the western side of the line may be in a less favorable environment for strong updrafts. Radar supports that storms are weaker in this area as well.

-JB