One of the Strongest CTC Signals Seen in ABQ Area Today over SE NM…2305Z ABQ Update

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

CTC values around -31C/15 min over southern Chaves county.  Forecasting storm development southern Chaves moving into Eddy.  Last radar scans starting to show midlevel echoes down there at 2255Z.

SVR for NE New Mexico…Cloud Tops Growing over Mountians East of ABQ…2250Z ABQ Update

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

Current severe storm situation and warning polygons at 2230Z.  Cu field over the mountains east of ABQ are showing some enhancement with UAH CI values of 70 to 95.  May get initiation east of ABQ…but it appears the plains over eastern NM are still capped off to some degree judging from the visible imagery.

Watching the outflow off the stronger storms over NE NM to fire off new convection along the NM/TX border West of AMA next couple of hours as indicated by OUN WRF.

MAF: First experimental warning!

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

First warned storm of the day at MAF over Reeves/Pecos county line. This is on a psuedo-dryline where temps are in the 90s and dewpoints in the 50s with strong ESEly flow. MRMS showed this storm well with 62dBZ at -20C and 1.5 inch MESH.

The CIMMS CTC product also showed significant cooling with this storm as it was developing. The 2215 UTC image overlaid with sfc obs and Vis satellite shows the boundary as well as the significant cloud top cooling (around -28C/15 minutes).

Also noticed a little earlier at 2115 UTC that Ft Stockton/Pecos co airport had 98F/56F with a 11017G24kt wind. The Pecos Municipal airport (KPEQ) had 100F/53F with a 08009kt wind. The CTC was just ramping up at that time with -8C/15min.

This storm is moving very little as new updrafts from on the western flank, but winds aloft are fairly weak this far south. If this storm persists for more than an hour, localized flash flooding could be a big issue.

Cloud Tops Increasing Across Parts of Central/Eastern NM…2205Z ABQ Update

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

Starting to see values around 70 east of ABQ.  May get some convective initiation east of ABQ south of main area of convection now.  Visible shows Cu field growing east of ABQ and towards the TX Panhandle.  Can this be a hint that the development advertised by the OUN WRF just south of the current convective line over NE NM may pan out at little sooner than expected? Here is a look at the latest radar composite…

Watching for Isolated Storms SE New Mexico at 2124Z…ABQ Update

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

CTC rates have increased to around -19C/15 min over past 2 passes.  Watching down around Chaves County in SE NM now for potential for convective initiation.   OUN WRF does not indicate these storms will get very strong when they develop.

LUB – Satellite vs. OUN WRF verification

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

Latest run of OUN WRF at 20z still paints convective initiation to occur over the southern portion of the South Plains for 2030z.

Looking at satellite imagery with convective initiation overlaid, convection still is struggling to grow over the region. May be another indication that the OUN WRF initiates convection too soon. But still think that the area will still see organized convection but just a bit later.

MAF – waiting on CI part deux

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

17, 18 and 19z OUN WRF initiated convection in Lea Co and other counties to the southeast by 19-20z.  The CIRA WRF 10.4um simulated IR imagery also developed convection in northeast Pecos Co by 20z, but convection has not developed in MAF CWA per the 20z Goes IR image.

The 1902z UAH-CI Sfc CI also indicated a small area of 90% CI in Lea Co that matched well with the OUN WRF fcst, but the cell did not develop.

MAF: Waiting for CI

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

GOES CI products from UAH and CIMSS not showing a sustained area of CI across Ern NM and SW TX. SE Colorado had some nice CI and subsequent deep convection.

If we can overcome CAP, storms in Ern NM/SW TX will have a lot of CAPE to work with with above normal vertical wind shear for this time of year. SPC has issued an MD for possible severe tstorm watch for SE NM/SW TX.  Not talking it up too much however.

19Z OUNWRF showing that AMA and SJT WFOs may have the most action tonight. We’ll see...

LUB- GOES-R Nearcast of Instability/Moisture

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

GOES-R Nearcast shows the low level moisture and instability axis from the Low Rolling Plains off the Caprock northwest into the southern Texas Panhandle at 21z. The Nearcast of CAPE is around 1500 J/K in the LUB forecast area but higher in northeast New Mexico.

Waiting for storms to develop. But once storms develop, Nearcast of low level Precipitable waters shows the higher low level moisture axis will remain over the South Plains and Rolling Plains through the evening. With the directional shear from low level easterly to modestly strong mid and upper level westerly flow, potential for convection to grow upscale into MCS later tonight.

ABQ – First Experimental Warning of the Day – Update at 1945Z

Forecaster comments from EWP blog...

Storms firing northeast of ABQ are strengthening.  Cloud top cooling around -29C/15min.