We are monitoring convection in the RNK (Blacksburg, VA) CWA this afternoon, but so far the development has been rather weak.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Weak Convection in the RNK CWA
Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
We are monitoring convection in the RNK (Blacksburg, VA) CWA this afternoon, but so far the development has been rather weak.
The 3D-VAR analysis has been useful for monitoring updraft intensity
and anticipating possible stronger updrafts (top-right indicates
instantaneous updrafts, bottom-right indicates 30-minute updraft
history). However, none of the strong updrafts have maintained
themselves beyond one “scan”.
The convective initiation algorithms have struggled due to all of the
cirrus blanketing the northwestern half of the RNK CWA, but some
clearing in the southeast has produced some CI from the UAH algorithm.
Using the new Strength of Signal output, nothing has gotten above ~50
(the included sample is just 46 in the south-central portion of the
CWA), and indeed there has been little significant development in those
areas. Nothing has triggered the UW Cloud Top Cooling algorithm yet in
our area as of 1902 UTC.
We are monitoring convection in the RNK (Blacksburg, VA) CWA this afternoon, but so far the development has been rather weak.
EWP daily debrief 5/15
Today we had our first opportunity to discuss with the week 2 participants their feelings on some of the products from the previous day's forecasting activities. They didn't have much chance to look at the products in any detail yesterday because they were getting used to the system. But, there was one in depth discussion we had regarding experiment logistics that I thought was an interesting point to raise for future demonstrations.
One of the forecasters mentioned, "There was a bit of challenge with the number of products we had and the number of procedures... it took a long time to get through it all and then we moved to another CWA so we had to start all over again. Even the procedures we were using opened up over TX so we had to reset everything... I ended up just loading everything in the volume browser which took a lot of time."
It may seem like a very small part of these demonstrations for the local coordinators to set up procedures for the forecasters for the experimental products when you also have to worry about data flow, display, IT issues, organizing visiting scientists, etc. Making things as easy to display for the forecasters (or whatever users you have) is very important for an effective demonstration of experimental products.
One of the forecasters mentioned, "There was a bit of challenge with the number of products we had and the number of procedures... it took a long time to get through it all and then we moved to another CWA so we had to start all over again. Even the procedures we were using opened up over TX so we had to reset everything... I ended up just loading everything in the volume browser which took a lot of time."
It may seem like a very small part of these demonstrations for the local coordinators to set up procedures for the forecasters for the experimental products when you also have to worry about data flow, display, IT issues, organizing visiting scientists, etc. Making things as easy to display for the forecasters (or whatever users you have) is very important for an effective demonstration of experimental products.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Dusty CI
Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
Not much going on in EWX as accurately portrayed by nearcast (theta e difference product) showing max instability just across the border in Mexico. Very nice looking convection over there and an outflow boundary over there kicking up quite a bit of dust.
The boundary/dust storm did trigger a tracked object on the UAH CI product.
Not much going on in EWX as accurately portrayed by nearcast (theta e difference product) showing max instability just across the border in Mexico. Very nice looking convection over there and an outflow boundary over there kicking up quite a bit of dust.
CI and Cloud-top cooling over FL
Forecaster comments from EWP blog...
As we were getting started looking at weather in Florida, a good case for the Convective Initiation and Cloud Top Cooling algorithms took place over the southern county of MLB’s CWA.
As we were getting started looking at weather in Florida, a good case for the Convective Initiation and Cloud Top Cooling algorithms took place over the southern county of MLB’s CWA.
Convective Initiation gave
first indication of developing convection at 1925z.
Cloud Top Cooling gave a strong signal at 1940z and 1945z.
Max Estimated Hail Size (MESH) indicated Hail at 1.1 inch at 2026z.
A combination of the Convective Initiation and Cloud Top Cooling used
together could have raised awareness of a possibly severe storm up to
45 minutes ahead of time.
Simulated satellite, CI and Nearcast
Forecaster comments from the EWP blog...
Currently watching the IR(actual) vs IR(synthetic). The synthetic image did a good job indicating where the convection would initiate, but the thunderstorm canopies are underdone.
The CI product indicated it well with a strong red signal. As of
this frame, radar detected a 65dBZ core in this storm (not shown here).
The theta-e diff product earlier indicated high potential for severe
storms in this area.
Currently watching the IR(actual) vs IR(synthetic). The synthetic image did a good job indicating where the convection would initiate, but the thunderstorm canopies are underdone.
Friday, May 11, 2012
"Tales from the Testbed" Webinar
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A couple comments from the forecasters during the webinar...
"Based on the environment and the ongoing supercell activity, I issued the warning as soon as I saw the CTC... Without the CTC product, I may have issued the warning a scan or two later... which lead to a greater warning issuance lead time."
"Synthetic WRF imagery can enhance forecasts by providing model data in a familiar satellite format which makes model analysis, model comparison to obs and model forecast projections easier to visualize and understand."
One of the forecasters even mentioned that some of the GOES-R Proving Ground products are currently available for demonstration to the broader community via website or LDM in real-time.
EWP end of week 1 debrief
Prior to our "Tales from the Testbed" webinar that begins at noon, we had the opportunity to sit down with the visiting forecasters and discuss their experiences over the past week regarding individual products and overall training/demonstration effectiveness.
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- "We were looking at the CI/CTC quite often and there were some areas that were quite ahead of time where enhanced updraft potential was taking place." (Thursday's event)
- "We saw a lot of the SATCAST along the boundary, but not as much of the CTC... which did make sense because we did see a lot of enhanced cu, but not a lot of really strong storms." (Thursday's event)
- "It (SATCAST) really helped to focus in on the area with the lower probability threshold and then once it transitioned into 50 or above, that's when the strong storms started to develop... very consistently too."
- "I never felt like during the experiment that it (SATCAST) was giving me too much information, like too many false alarms or anything... the strength of signal really helped correspond to what was happening."
- "It (SATCAST) was a great move to go with the strength of signal... it provided information instead of the yes or no... you can compare it to your level of confidence in terms of development."
- "It was definitely important to stress to look at the environment first with these products, especially with the SATCAST product which helped me handle any false alarms."
- "It was nice to match up the CTC with things like the 3D-VAR updraft strength."
- "I only say one high confidence false alarm over the whole week... other than that, when you saw red, you could count on it seeing 30 dBZ or higher." (SATCAST)
- Would you like to see a completely data-fused product with model data or would it be helpful to provide the product by itself as well? "If you could provide both, that would be really useful because sometimes the model is completely wrong."
- Any other potential uses for this (SATCAST) product? "Boundary identifier definitely... you can really pick out areas where instability is increasing."
- "With the CTC, the storm was generally already ongoing... we could use the two products to somehow put an initial lower probability."
- Would you like to see any big changes in the SATCAST product? "I would like to see some studies done on the threshold on the signal strengths." "I would like to see a readout of the background fields."
- "It (CI) enhances the total observations network... I would like to play with it some more."
- Did you like the color scheme for SATCAST? "I liked it... it worked great."
- "I love that product (CTC)... yeah you can look at the IR imagery and figure it out, but why do that extra work... have the algorithm do it for you. It really helped as a situational awareness tool."
- "I issued a warning on the CTC... obviously you have be aware of the situation and the environment."
- Was it obvious every time it happened? "I think it was enough, you could overlay it on visible or radar and then use the accumulated to get a longer picture of what has happened."
- "I'd like to see a longer accumulation product (CTC)... sometimes it was a much longer period between the initial growth before it became strong."
- "Maybe an alarm of a CTC threshold like -10 or -20 C/15 min would be useful."
Nearcast
- "It was picking up a surge of theta-e that was over the eastern-most counties over our CWA, which pointed out an area of enhanced tornadic threat later in the day." (Thursday's event)
- "Near storm environment... specifically the theta-e difference product... you can see the instability extending all the way off shore... you could tell that storm would keep going and going."
- A lot of the time you would have missing data, but specifically with the isolated storms you could really get an idea of where the instability would be."
- "Useful in finding the cold front and relatively stable air... you could see the cold airmass moving in."
- "If there weren't clouds moving in... I wonder if we would have seen cooler more stable air moving in at the 500mb level that would have suppressed convection. It would have been nice to use the different levels more often, but there was a lot going on."
- "We added the synthetic IR to the 4-panel with the nearcast theta-a difference and levels to get an overall picture of what could evolve."
- "Instead of seeing the holes from cloud cover... maybe you could add in some model data to fill the gaps."
Simulated Satellite
- "The simulated imagery really helped depict boundaries where storms would form, and also had a good handle on the mode of the convection." (Thursday's event)
- "Maintaining situational awareness, getting the impression that the short wave was moving in and the moisture coming in to the area, it was great to see how the environment was changing."
- "Potential for convective initiation was brought out... makes those spots look hot on a quick large scale glance"
- "I can easily compare WRF IR to observed IR... it was really simple to do."
Overall / Training
- "Between the satellite stuff and the 3D-VAR, you're really getting a good start on warn-on-forecast... putting it all together would really be very useful."
- "I really felt like I was a warning forecaster during the event... and that is key to a good experiment."
- "The cheat sheets you made for each of the products, how to load them and use them, were really useful."
- A few of the forecasters have asked us to provide them with either a website or some way to bring some of the products into their operations... specifically the simulated satellite imagery and band differences data, as well as the SATCAST and UW cloud-top cooling products. POC information will be provided to the forecasters for each of the products within an end of the week thank you email.
- "Having the forecasters blog really helps you all see if we are 'getting it'."
- How much should we interrupt you during operations? Could you have used more conversation from the PIs? "I thought it was perfect"
- "Not having the pressure to have to 'catch every warning' and having the freedom to test things was very useful in getting some quality feedback."
- "The addition of the extra day on Monday was very helpful in setting up a rhythm."
- Was the pace of the training good? Was it too much? "I thought it was fine... you covered all the products." "I think it's important to emphasize the first training shift at the WFO to come in up to speed... the more emphasis the better... If everyone could get that done ahead of time you could really hit the ground running when you came in."
- Did the job sheets introduce the products well? "They were great."
- "The format you put the WES case in was very compatible to the various PCs we had available... I know I'm going to go back and give a seminar on how we should package our training."
SATCAST / UW Cloud-top Cooling
- "We were looking at the CI/CTC quite often and there were some areas that were quite ahead of time where enhanced updraft potential was taking place." (Thursday's event)
- "We saw a lot of the SATCAST along the boundary, but not as much of the CTC... which did make sense because we did see a lot of enhanced cu, but not a lot of really strong storms." (Thursday's event)
- "It (SATCAST) really helped to focus in on the area with the lower probability threshold and then once it transitioned into 50 or above, that's when the strong storms started to develop... very consistently too."
- "I never felt like during the experiment that it (SATCAST) was giving me too much information, like too many false alarms or anything... the strength of signal really helped correspond to what was happening."
- "It (SATCAST) was a great move to go with the strength of signal... it provided information instead of the yes or no... you can compare it to your level of confidence in terms of development."
- "It was definitely important to stress to look at the environment first with these products, especially with the SATCAST product which helped me handle any false alarms."
- "It was nice to match up the CTC with things like the 3D-VAR updraft strength."
- "I only say one high confidence false alarm over the whole week... other than that, when you saw red, you could count on it seeing 30 dBZ or higher." (SATCAST)
- Would you like to see a completely data-fused product with model data or would it be helpful to provide the product by itself as well? "If you could provide both, that would be really useful because sometimes the model is completely wrong."
- Any other potential uses for this (SATCAST) product? "Boundary identifier definitely... you can really pick out areas where instability is increasing."
- "With the CTC, the storm was generally already ongoing... we could use the two products to somehow put an initial lower probability."
- Would you like to see any big changes in the SATCAST product? "I would like to see some studies done on the threshold on the signal strengths." "I would like to see a readout of the background fields."
- "It (CI) enhances the total observations network... I would like to play with it some more."
- Did you like the color scheme for SATCAST? "I liked it... it worked great."
- "I love that product (CTC)... yeah you can look at the IR imagery and figure it out, but why do that extra work... have the algorithm do it for you. It really helped as a situational awareness tool."
- "I issued a warning on the CTC... obviously you have be aware of the situation and the environment."
- Was it obvious every time it happened? "I think it was enough, you could overlay it on visible or radar and then use the accumulated to get a longer picture of what has happened."
- "I'd like to see a longer accumulation product (CTC)... sometimes it was a much longer period between the initial growth before it became strong."
- "Maybe an alarm of a CTC threshold like -10 or -20 C/15 min would be useful."
Nearcast
- "It was picking up a surge of theta-e that was over the eastern-most counties over our CWA, which pointed out an area of enhanced tornadic threat later in the day." (Thursday's event)
- "Near storm environment... specifically the theta-e difference product... you can see the instability extending all the way off shore... you could tell that storm would keep going and going."
- A lot of the time you would have missing data, but specifically with the isolated storms you could really get an idea of where the instability would be."
- "Useful in finding the cold front and relatively stable air... you could see the cold airmass moving in."
- "If there weren't clouds moving in... I wonder if we would have seen cooler more stable air moving in at the 500mb level that would have suppressed convection. It would have been nice to use the different levels more often, but there was a lot going on."
- "We added the synthetic IR to the 4-panel with the nearcast theta-a difference and levels to get an overall picture of what could evolve."
- "Instead of seeing the holes from cloud cover... maybe you could add in some model data to fill the gaps."
Simulated Satellite
- "The simulated imagery really helped depict boundaries where storms would form, and also had a good handle on the mode of the convection." (Thursday's event)
- "Maintaining situational awareness, getting the impression that the short wave was moving in and the moisture coming in to the area, it was great to see how the environment was changing."
- "Potential for convective initiation was brought out... makes those spots look hot on a quick large scale glance"
- "I can easily compare WRF IR to observed IR... it was really simple to do."
Overall / Training
- "Between the satellite stuff and the 3D-VAR, you're really getting a good start on warn-on-forecast... putting it all together would really be very useful."
- "I really felt like I was a warning forecaster during the event... and that is key to a good experiment."
- "The cheat sheets you made for each of the products, how to load them and use them, were really useful."
- A few of the forecasters have asked us to provide them with either a website or some way to bring some of the products into their operations... specifically the simulated satellite imagery and band differences data, as well as the SATCAST and UW cloud-top cooling products. POC information will be provided to the forecasters for each of the products within an end of the week thank you email.
- "Having the forecasters blog really helps you all see if we are 'getting it'."
- How much should we interrupt you during operations? Could you have used more conversation from the PIs? "I thought it was perfect"
- "Not having the pressure to have to 'catch every warning' and having the freedom to test things was very useful in getting some quality feedback."
- "The addition of the extra day on Monday was very helpful in setting up a rhythm."
- Was the pace of the training good? Was it too much? "I thought it was fine... you covered all the products." "I think it's important to emphasize the first training shift at the WFO to come in up to speed... the more emphasis the better... If everyone could get that done ahead of time you could really hit the ground running when you came in."
- Did the job sheets introduce the products well? "They were great."
- "The format you put the WES case in was very compatible to the various PCs we had available... I know I'm going to go back and give a seminar on how we should package our training."
Thursday, May 10, 2012
BRO MESO Desk @ 0010Z
EXPERIMENTAL forecaster discussion from EWP blog...
NearCAST guidance continues to support the enhancement of thunderstorm development from Jim Hogg and Starr counties. It’s appears the model indicated a weak disturbance increasing Theta E across forecast area between 01Z and 04Z, which will add to the existing unstable conditions. Severe thunderstorm potential remains high. Emergency managers and other decision makers are strongly encouraged to prepare for the threat of severe weather through 05Z. Isolated tornadoes are still possible.
NearCAST guidance continues to support the enhancement of thunderstorm development from Jim Hogg and Starr counties. It’s appears the model indicated a weak disturbance increasing Theta E across forecast area between 01Z and 04Z, which will add to the existing unstable conditions. Severe thunderstorm potential remains high. Emergency managers and other decision makers are strongly encouraged to prepare for the threat of severe weather through 05Z. Isolated tornadoes are still possible.
EWP: EXPERIMENTAL Severe Thunderstorm Warning Based on UW-CTC and Environmental Parameters
Another thunderstorm was developing along an outflow boundary over southern Texas. The NWS forecaster working the KCRP WFO made note of the UW-CTC -20 K / 15 min at 2310 UTC 10 May 2012 on the newly developing thunderstorm. Given the experiment is designed for out-of-routine thinking, he decided to issue a severe thunderstorm warning "a radar volume scan earlier" based upon the mesoscale environment, previous thunderstorm development along the boundary, and the fact the storm was exhibiting cooling rates in the strong category from the UW-CTC vs. NEXRAD study presented for training.
Figure 1. Valid 2310 UTC 10 May 2012. The UW-CTC rate of ~ -20 K / 15 min (top right panel) combined with the environmental conditions and previous thunderstorm development in the vicinity allowed for an experimental severe thunderstorm warning at EWP/HWT (bottom left panel). **NOTE THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL WARNING**
We are continuing to monitor the storm via the KCRP radar for further intensification.
UPDATE 1: 2340 UTC 10 May 2012 - radar is estimating just over 1.00" hail (severe hail threshold); for a 30 minute lead-time for UW-CTC.
UPDATE 2: 2350 UTC 10 May 2012 - the NWS forecaster has upgraded the severe thunderstorm warning to an EXPERIMENTAL tornado warning, 40 minutes after the intense UW-CTC signal. The radar estimated hail size has increased to 1.40". The storm is highlighted in the image below.
Figure 2. Valid 2350 UTC 10 May 2012. The storm warned on in Figure 1, now upgraded to an EXPERIMENTAL tornado warning highlighted by the red circle.
We are continuing to monitor the storm via the KCRP radar for further intensification.
UPDATE 1: 2340 UTC 10 May 2012 - radar is estimating just over 1.00" hail (severe hail threshold); for a 30 minute lead-time for UW-CTC.
UPDATE 2: 2350 UTC 10 May 2012 - the NWS forecaster has upgraded the severe thunderstorm warning to an EXPERIMENTAL tornado warning, 40 minutes after the intense UW-CTC signal. The radar estimated hail size has increased to 1.40". The storm is highlighted in the image below.
EWP: UAH SATCAST and UW-CTC Provides 40-50 minute lead time on EXPERIMENTAL Severe Warning
Thunderstorms continued to develop along an outflow boundary over southern Texas Thursday afternoon. The satellite-based convective support algorithms (UAH SATCAST and UW-CTC) captured the early growth of the latest thunderstorm along the outflow boundary. Shown in the figures below, SATCAST and UW-CTC provided 40-50 minutes of lead-time ahead of severe thunderstorm issuance and approximately 1 hour ahead of tornado warning issuance. Additionally golf ball size hail was reported with this storm 1.5 hours later.
Figure 1. Valid 2140 UTC 10 May 2012. The UAH CI Strength of Signal product detects early rapid growth on a newly developing storm in south Texas (top-left pane).
Figure 2. Valid 2145 UTC 10 May 2012. The UW-CTC algorithm identifies the same developing storm with cooling rates of approximately -12 K / 15 min (top-right pane).
Figure 4. Valid 2229 UTC 10 May 2012. The base reflectivity from KCRP with severe thunderstorm warning polygon issued by NWS forecasters at the EWP/HWT. This warning was later upgraded to a tornado waring at the EWP/HWT. **NOTE THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL WARNING**
Sieglaff/CIMSS
Walker/UAH
Barnes/WFO OUN
Figure 3. Valid 2155 UTC 10 May 2012. The UAH CI Strength of Signal product continues to indicate rapid redevelopment on the tail end of the existing thunderstorm complex (top-left pane).
Sieglaff/CIMSS
Walker/UAH
Barnes/WFO OUN
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