EWP: UAH SATCAST and UW-CTC Provides 40-50 minute lead time on EXPERIMENTAL Severe Warning

Thunderstorms continued to develop along an outflow boundary over southern Texas Thursday afternoon.  The satellite-based convective support algorithms (UAH SATCAST and UW-CTC) captured the early growth of the latest thunderstorm along the outflow boundary.  Shown in the figures below, SATCAST and UW-CTC provided 40-50 minutes of lead-time ahead of severe thunderstorm issuance and approximately 1 hour ahead of tornado warning issuance.  Additionally golf ball size hail was reported with this storm 1.5 hours later.

Figure 1.  Valid 2140 UTC 10 May 2012.  The UAH CI Strength of Signal product detects early rapid growth on a newly developing storm in south Texas (top-left pane).

Figure 2.  Valid 2145 UTC 10 May 2012.  The UW-CTC algorithm identifies the same developing storm with cooling rates of approximately -12 K / 15 min (top-right pane).

Figure 3. Valid 2155 UTC 10 May 2012.  The UAH CI Strength of Signal product continues to indicate rapid redevelopment on the tail end of the existing thunderstorm complex (top-left pane).

Figure 4. Valid 2229 UTC 10 May 2012.  The base reflectivity from KCRP with severe thunderstorm warning polygon issued by NWS forecasters at the EWP/HWT.  This warning was later upgraded to a tornado waring at the EWP/HWT.  **NOTE THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL WARNING**

Sieglaff/CIMSS
Walker/UAH
Barnes/WFO OUN