NSSL-WRF simulated GOES-R products

GOES-R visiting scientists discussed with NSSL scientist Jack Kain about the possibility of creating NSSL-WRF simulated GOES-R convective initiation products. Since the model has very short time-steps (24 seconds), following cloud 'objects' via the SATCAST overlap method should be relatively simple. From this, a cloud top-cooling rate and other CI fields, such as cloud-top glaciation, would be easy to produce. Hopefully in the future we may be able to start producing this and other unique GOES-R products that we can not currently produce from observational sensors.

UWCI capturing initiating convection in S MO

UWCI (upper right of four panel) captured convection initiating in south central Missouri. Looking at the bottom image posted above, which was valid 1725 UTC, we get 'CI likely' along the southern end of a building convective line. The very top image is valid 50 minutes later when the storm has matured and produced the first signs of CG lightning strikes (lower right panel). The upper section of the newly convective line was labeled with ice cloud type earlier in it's development, therefore not allowing UWCI to be produced for this part of the line.

CI beginning to occur over south central MO

Despite EWP operations being canceled for today, monitoring of experimental products continues. As the strong cold core upper level low continues to churn eastward, new thunderstorm development continues to erupt in Missouri as daytime heating combined with mid-level cold air advection erode the cap. SATCAST CI has recently forecasted new convection to develop in this region. An example is presented in the images below:

In the upper image, SATCAST is predicting convection to fire somewhere near the circled area at 1645 UTC, as SATCAST currently predicts which cloud objects are forecast to initiate, but now exactly where it will do so. Not there is no convection currently at the same time (lower right panel in top image).

In the lower image, radar imagery shows greater than 35 dBZ at 1726 UTC, approximately a 41 minute lead time. No lightning had been generated as yet, but the storms to the north have quickly become severe, and it sure appears as storms form further south, that they will also become severe.

In a future blog post, we will try to look at other areas of the country where severe weather is not anticipated if the weather cooperates.

EWP operations suspended today

EWP forecasters have been pulled away to assist with damage surveys today, so EWP operations will not be occurring. Some of the EFP participants have also left to assist with the damage surveys as well. Therefore, today will be a relatively unproductive day in the HWT despite the moderate risk out.

All clear in Norman...

For the second Spring Experiment in a row we were evacuated to the NWC basement as two tornadoes passed just north and south of the NWC. Debris fell from the sky around the NWC as we took shelter. The good news is we are all okay and Norman seems to be relatively unscathed. However, there is some significant damage to our north and south as some houses have been completely removed from their foundations. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those affected. HWT activities may be canceled tomorrow to assist in the damage survey and cleanup efforts.

Here are the AWIPS screen shots from the OTs and TCs. I didn't have a chance to put up the visible. We're going to be evacuating soon to the shelter..... Tor warn out for Norman.

More thermal couplets being detected

Another couplet and several OTs right on cue!

Thermal Couplet Detection with convection in south central KS

South Central Kansas is experiencing some severe weather right now - along with us - and where we're seeing reports of high winds and hail, we've detected a thermal couplet. Also, notice the overshooting tops associated with this convection.

Overshooting tops observed with initial storms along dryline

Overshooting tops are being detected with these initial storms firing along the dryline. No thermal couplets have yet to be detected.....

CTC capturing initial development along dryline

UWCI CTC product captured this initial cell along the dryline this afternoon. The image sequence above begins with earliest to latest. Notice the continuous signal from the storm from initiation. This cell is currently producing a multiple vortex tornado. The cells further south all had CI signals, too; however, since CTC product is not displaying correctly in AWIPS/NAWIPS currently, I'm only showing the initial storm.