CI beginning to occur over south central MO

Despite EWP operations being canceled for today, monitoring of experimental products continues. As the strong cold core upper level low continues to churn eastward, new thunderstorm development continues to erupt in Missouri as daytime heating combined with mid-level cold air advection erode the cap. SATCAST CI has recently forecasted new convection to develop in this region. An example is presented in the images below:

In the upper image, SATCAST is predicting convection to fire somewhere near the circled area at 1645 UTC, as SATCAST currently predicts which cloud objects are forecast to initiate, but now exactly where it will do so. Not there is no convection currently at the same time (lower right panel in top image).

In the lower image, radar imagery shows greater than 35 dBZ at 1726 UTC, approximately a 41 minute lead time. No lightning had been generated as yet, but the storms to the north have quickly become severe, and it sure appears as storms form further south, that they will also become severe.

In a future blog post, we will try to look at other areas of the country where severe weather is not anticipated if the weather cooperates.