EWP operations suspended today

EWP forecasters have been pulled away to assist with damage surveys today, so EWP operations will not be occurring. Some of the EFP participants have also left to assist with the damage surveys as well. Therefore, today will be a relatively unproductive day in the HWT despite the moderate risk out.

All clear in Norman...

For the second Spring Experiment in a row we were evacuated to the NWC basement as two tornadoes passed just north and south of the NWC. Debris fell from the sky around the NWC as we took shelter. The good news is we are all okay and Norman seems to be relatively unscathed. However, there is some significant damage to our north and south as some houses have been completely removed from their foundations. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those affected. HWT activities may be canceled tomorrow to assist in the damage survey and cleanup efforts.

Here are the AWIPS screen shots from the OTs and TCs. I didn't have a chance to put up the visible. We're going to be evacuating soon to the shelter..... Tor warn out for Norman.

More thermal couplets being detected

Another couplet and several OTs right on cue!

Thermal Couplet Detection with convection in south central KS

South Central Kansas is experiencing some severe weather right now - along with us - and where we're seeing reports of high winds and hail, we've detected a thermal couplet. Also, notice the overshooting tops associated with this convection.

Overshooting tops observed with initial storms along dryline

Overshooting tops are being detected with these initial storms firing along the dryline. No thermal couplets have yet to be detected.....

CTC capturing initial development along dryline

UWCI CTC product captured this initial cell along the dryline this afternoon. The image sequence above begins with earliest to latest. Notice the continuous signal from the storm from initiation. This cell is currently producing a multiple vortex tornado. The cells further south all had CI signals, too; however, since CTC product is not displaying correctly in AWIPS/NAWIPS currently, I'm only showing the initial storm.

Nearcast in warning operations...

Nearcast differential theta-e product 1-hour forecast valid at 2000 UTC on 24 May 2011
EWP forecasters have begun warning operations within the EWP. A few of them are examining the Nearcast differential theta-e product within the AWIPS D2D workstations. I overheard a comment about how the forecaster is watching the storms moving into an area of enhanced differential theta-e on the northern edge of the band extending from TX into western OK. He noted how he expects this storm to potentially intensify as it interacts with this area. While the Nearcast product is not necessarily a warning tool, it may be an interesting application of the data immediately following an hourly update.

SATCAST captures storm that produced estimated 1.75" hail

The SATCAST CI algorithm forecasted CI for an initial development on the dryline. Horizontal convective rolls were evident in satellite imagery which intersected with the dryline. Due to the busy nature of the day today, images were captured using NAWIPS rather than AWIPS. Therefore, the only comparison to be made is between the SATCAST (upper image) and base reflectivity (lower image).




Forecasters participating in the EWP estimated that SATCAST gave approximately 10-15 minute lead time on the intial appearance of 35 dBZ at -10 C. It gave a 33 minute lead time compared to base reflectivity. The storm has produced ~1.75" hail stones. As of writing, the storm is now producing a small rope tornado.

The storms are in a ripe environment to develop quickly, therefore it has been imperative GOES be in rapid scan mode as storms produce a cirrus shield within 15 minutes of development. Both CI algorithms have performed remarkably in such a volatile environment. Both continue to forecast CI along the southern end of the dryline.

EWP warning operations

Forecasters are currently issuing experimental warnings while monitoring the CI, PGLM and MRMS products during warning operations within the HWT. They also have a situational awareness display where we can stream live chase feeds from TV stations and websites.