SATCAST captures storm that produced estimated 1.75" hail

The SATCAST CI algorithm forecasted CI for an initial development on the dryline. Horizontal convective rolls were evident in satellite imagery which intersected with the dryline. Due to the busy nature of the day today, images were captured using NAWIPS rather than AWIPS. Therefore, the only comparison to be made is between the SATCAST (upper image) and base reflectivity (lower image).




Forecasters participating in the EWP estimated that SATCAST gave approximately 10-15 minute lead time on the intial appearance of 35 dBZ at -10 C. It gave a 33 minute lead time compared to base reflectivity. The storm has produced ~1.75" hail stones. As of writing, the storm is now producing a small rope tornado.

The storms are in a ripe environment to develop quickly, therefore it has been imperative GOES be in rapid scan mode as storms produce a cirrus shield within 15 minutes of development. Both CI algorithms have performed remarkably in such a volatile environment. Both continue to forecast CI along the southern end of the dryline.