Here are the AWIPS screen shots from the OTs and TCs. I didn't have a chance to put up the visible. We're going to be evacuating soon to the shelter..... Tor warn out for Norman.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Thermal Couplet Detection with convection in south central KS
South Central Kansas is experiencing some severe weather right now - along with us - and where we're seeing reports of high winds and hail, we've detected a thermal couplet. Also, notice the overshooting tops associated with this convection.
Overshooting tops observed with initial storms along dryline
Overshooting tops are being detected with these initial storms firing along the dryline. No thermal couplets have yet to be detected.....
CTC capturing initial development along dryline
UWCI CTC product captured this initial cell along the dryline this afternoon. The image sequence above begins with earliest to latest. Notice the continuous signal from the storm from initiation. This cell is currently producing a multiple vortex tornado. The cells further south all had CI signals, too; however, since CTC product is not displaying correctly in AWIPS/NAWIPS currently, I'm only showing the initial storm.
Nearcast in warning operations...
EWP forecasters have begun warning operations within the EWP. A few of them are examining the Nearcast differential theta-e product within the AWIPS D2D workstations. I overheard a comment about how the forecaster is watching the storms moving into an area of enhanced differential theta-e on the northern edge of the band extending from TX into western OK. He noted how he expects this storm to potentially intensify as it interacts with this area. While the Nearcast product is not necessarily a warning tool, it may be an interesting application of the data immediately following an hourly update.
SATCAST captures storm that produced estimated 1.75" hail
The SATCAST CI algorithm forecasted CI for an initial development on the dryline. Horizontal convective rolls were evident in satellite imagery which intersected with the dryline. Due to the busy nature of the day today, images were captured using NAWIPS rather than AWIPS. Therefore, the only comparison to be made is between the SATCAST (upper image) and base reflectivity (lower image).
Forecasters participating in the EWP estimated that SATCAST gave approximately 10-15 minute lead time on the intial appearance of 35 dBZ at -10 C. It gave a 33 minute lead time compared to base reflectivity. The storm has produced ~1.75" hail stones. As of writing, the storm is now producing a small rope tornado.
The storms are in a ripe environment to develop quickly, therefore it has been imperative GOES be in rapid scan mode as storms produce a cirrus shield within 15 minutes of development. Both CI algorithms have performed remarkably in such a volatile environment. Both continue to forecast CI along the southern end of the dryline.
Forecasters participating in the EWP estimated that SATCAST gave approximately 10-15 minute lead time on the intial appearance of 35 dBZ at -10 C. It gave a 33 minute lead time compared to base reflectivity. The storm has produced ~1.75" hail stones. As of writing, the storm is now producing a small rope tornado.
The storms are in a ripe environment to develop quickly, therefore it has been imperative GOES be in rapid scan mode as storms produce a cirrus shield within 15 minutes of development. Both CI algorithms have performed remarkably in such a volatile environment. Both continue to forecast CI along the southern end of the dryline.
EWP warning operations
Forecasters are currently issuing experimental warnings while monitoring the CI, PGLM and MRMS products during warning operations within the HWT. They also have a situational awareness display where we can stream live chase feeds from TV stations and websites.
Convective initiation along sw OK dryline
Forecaster comments reposted from EWP blog...
Convective inititation occured along the southwest OK dryline. According to UAHCI and CIMMS CI products, had about 10-15 minute lead time for storm near Altus. 30 minute lead time from UAHCI and 20 mintue lead time from CIMMS CI for storm near Sayer.
Horizontal convective rolls east of sw OK dryline suggest storms may form in the warm sector too…maybe!
Pablo, Rudoph, and Bobby
Convective inititation occured along the southwest OK dryline. According to UAHCI and CIMMS CI products, had about 10-15 minute lead time for storm near Altus. 30 minute lead time from UAHCI and 20 mintue lead time from CIMMS CI for storm near Sayer.
Horizontal convective rolls east of sw OK dryline suggest storms may form in the warm sector too…maybe!
Pablo, Rudoph, and Bobby
Both CI products capturing initial development of convection
Both CI products captured convective initiation in and near the Oklahoma panhandle this afternoon. Utilizing our 'ultimate_ci' procedure within AWIPS, I screen captured both the initial development of convection and further convective development farther east. See image above. The given images for CI products are valid for the 1645 UTC imagery, and you can see the general areas flagged by the algorithms. The bottom left panel of the four panel is reflectivity at -10C. The reflectivity product was not working earlier than 1745 UTC; therefore, what is shown is the first available image. As you can see this flagged convection has attained values around 55 dbZ showing that these CI hits were correctly flagged.
This second image shows both products correctly capturing CI within the 1710 UTC imagery. Querying the reflectivity at -10C, the cell at 1732 UTC had yet to attain greater than 35 dbZ with a max value of 28 dbZ. This cell would later attain greater than 35 dbZ approximately 30 minutes after initial CI flagging. As of the end of this blog post, these initial storms are still going strong.
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