The GEOXO Sim 5.15um band and WVT ratio showed supercell or at least thunderstorm development near Gettysburg by 21Z. However the initialization of the upper level cirrus was underdeveloped and the main severe warned thunderstorm was farther north than observed. The lower level cumulus also appeared to be underdeveloped. There is a clear region in the sims where higher moisture is present and dryer air exists on either side, with the thunderstorms developing on the western boundary line.
Figure 1: GEOXO Sim 5.15um band and WVT ratio on top with observed GOES-19 IR an visible imagery on bottom. First frame shows Observations at around 20Z compared to the model and the second frame is in the future on the top an hour later.
While not severe or as intense as the Sim suggested, storms did develop and provided an interesting borderline case where LightningCastv1 showed barely 10% and v2 showed barely 30% chance of lightning in the next hour within 5 miles of the Gettysburg DSS location. A lightning strike occurred roughly miles from Gettysburg that was detected by the ENTLM and the Stoplight tool maybe 2 miles to the east. In this case, the addition of MRMS was clearly helpful in detecting the initial nearby convection.
Figure 2. LightningCast comparison between version 1 and 2 and parallax vs no parallax adjustment.
Cloudius
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