Warm Sector and no Synoptic Forcing: Paducah Kentucky Edition
We started today with a very established capped warm sector. Dewpoints were in the upper 60s and low 70s across the CWA. MUCAPE values were in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-1 km SRH around 250 m^2/s^2. The thermodynamic parameters had started off well, but an early afternoon filled with cumulus clouds may spoil the convective threat. None of the warm sector convection never had gotten a chance to get started, there were glimpses of potential, but would quickly fizzle out. This will change quickly into the evening as the cold front moves across the region, but it is out of the “operational period”.
Vertical Wind Profiles:
With much quieter weather this afternoon than anticipated, we were able to deep dive the various uses of OCTANE. One of those is looking at the vertical wind profile. At the 0-3 km layer there is consistent south-southwest motion, while the 3-6 km layer is moving west-southwest. This analysis allows us to create a sense of ground truth that we are able to compare with models.
Figure: Here is the 22z RAP model hodegraph for the convection southeast of Marion in the previous figure. This paired with the satellite product listed above we are to say with good confidence that in Northwest Kentucky there is a well defined hooking hodograph.
Final Thoughts:
For a day filled with a firehouse of new techniques they all stood out with their uses. The common theme for me is confidence in the models and also the ground truth. Each of the techniques we were shown helped to build confidence in either direction. It will be interesting to see how effective these techniques are, when in a more normal “operations” setting filled with time and workload constraints.
-Blizzard
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