PDS Tornado Watch: Impressive Sounding at PAH

 Very impressive thermodynamic structure evolving over southwestern Kentucky at mid-afternoon (2000 UTC) 27 April 2026 as apparent in the RAP model analysis sounding over Paducah (Figure 1) with a PDS tornado watch issued for western Kentucky and Tennessee at 1945 UTC. The MetPy-generated skew-T profile and vertical theta-e sounding indicate the increasing convective instability over the mid-Mississippi Valley in a region of strong surface convergence and enhanced cumulus cloud development. To support the monitoring of developing convective storms over southeastern Missouri with a convergence zone in place over western Kentucky, using OCTANE cloud top cooling and LightningCast lightning probability products clearly shows atmospheric destabilization and a ramp-up in lightning activity in Figure 3. The RAP model sounding profile indicates downburst wind gust potential > 50 knots in the PAH area.

Figure 1. TOWR-S VuSkew screenshot of a RAP model sounding near Paducah, KY (PAH) at 2000 UTC 27 April 2026.

Figure 2: MetPy-generated RAP model skew-T plot (top) and theta-e sounding profile (bottom) at PAH at 2000 UTC showing strong convective instability over southwestern Kentucky.

Figure 3. AWIPS screenshot showing LightningCast lightning probability overlying OCTANE cloud top cooling and cloud phase detection products at 2026 UTC 27 April 2026.

-StormRangerWX