Though the radar-denial assignment was in GSP for the forecasters, I decided to take a look over at MRX while still avoiding radar. When looking at the OCTANE, there was a large (~50 kt) gradient in the OCTANE Speed Sandwich product, as well as a modest cooling signature and more significant divergence values up to 5*10^-3/s at 2024 UTC 08 May 2025. I’m aware that the smoothing technique can reduce the max divergence values observed, and believe the ‘high’ amount of smoothing may reduce the maximum value to the point that the forecaster will think the storm is not as intense.
OCTANE 4-panel at 2024 UTC 08 May 2025, with the Speed Sandwich (top left) and Cloud-Top Cooling and Divergence with varying smoothing techniques (none - top right, medium - bottom left, and high - bottom right). Please note while sampling the divergence value, it drops from ~5*10^-3/s for no smoothing to ~3*10^-3/s for high smoothing.
Based on OCTANE, I was leaning towards the storm being severe, so I also took a look at the GLM Flash Extent Density (FED) and GREMLIN products. There was a large lightning jump in the FED between 2006 and 2021 UTC 08 May 2025. In addition, the GOES-E Mesosector GREMLIN output showed intensifying reflectivities starting at 2007 UTC 08 May 2025.
LightningCast (V1-left, V2-right) overlaid on GLM FED and GOES-East Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB imagery at 2006 UTC 08 May 2025.
LightningCast (V1-left, V2-right) overlaid on GLM FED and GOES-East Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB imagery at 2021 UTC 08 May 2025.
GOES-East Mesosector GREMLIN output at 2007 UTC 08 May 2025 (left) and CONUS GREMLIN output at 2006 UTC 08 May 2025 (right).
I would go ahead and issue a Severe Tstorm Warning. Well enough, at 2024 UTC 08 May 2025, MRX issued the warning for “Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts”.
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