Low-topped convection is evident in southern Kansas under a closed upper-level low.
GOES-19 day-cloud-phase-distinction RGB, courtesy of College of Dupage NEXLAB.
The convection has been ongoing for about 2 hours this morning, with no observed GLM flashes. LightningCast v2, which includes MRMS Reflectivity -10C, has had more moderate probabilities of lightning, topping out at about 50%, whereas LightningCast v1 (GOES-only), has had a much wider range of ≥ 50% probabilities, with maxima > 75%.
Figure 2: LightningCast probability of lightning contours (left: version 2; right: version 1), in southern Kansas, along with the GOES-19 CH13 brightness temperature and C02 reflectance. The blue represents 10%, cyan 25%, green 50%, and magenta 75% probability of lightning in the next 60 minutes.
The MRMS viewer shows a few embedded areas of Ref -10C at 30-35 dBZ, but otherwise all convective cores are < 30 dBZ.
Figure 3: MRMS Reflectivity -10C for southern Kansas.
In this case, the radar predictor is by-and-large correctly moderating and reducing the probabilities of lightning in the region. We’ll see how the low-topped convection develops later in the day.
-Hail yeah
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