Wednesday, May 7, 2025

LightningCast Comparison for Cabbage, Potato, and Bacon Festival near Hastings, FL (JAX CWA) on Wednesday May 7th

 

LC V2 did better with lightning cessation showing lightning probabilities dropping quicker as convection moved east of the DSS event which it title “HOME”. This allowed for more timely DSS updates to partners mentioning the lightning threat was diminishing, at least over the next hour or so. LC V2 also did better with storms to the south which we will talk about more below.

LC V2 showed higher probabilities for lightning quicker for developing storms near southern portions of the county warning area. V2 also lowered probabilities quicker once the storms temporarily pulsed down. I do believe one or both of these storms eventually pulsed up again after this though so it is possible V1 performed slightly better in this scenario by keeping slightly higher lightning probabilities.

LC V2 had tighter areal extent of lightning probabilities overall which was more helpful and accurate. May just need to be a little more weary of sensitivity to decreasing lightning probs too quickly for pulse thunderstorms in the summer.

- Ricky Bobby

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