MesoAnalysis Support and Lack of Radar

More emphasis has been put on mesoanalysis in severe weather operations over the last several years and utilizing the OCTANE products has demonstrated that it has utility in confirming objective analysis. Scattered thunderstorms were developing across parts of the Carolinas today, but the mesoanalysis suggested that severe thunderstorms would be favored farther south and east of our area of concern through the late afternoon. A quick look at the SPC mesoanalysis of effective shear showed values of 40-50 kt to the south of our area of concern. As thunderstorms started to develop, we were able to use the OCTANE products to confirm that larger areas of shear were present with our southern storms.

Thunderstorms were ongoing across parts of northern SC and southern NC through mid afternoon. The OCTANE speed products clearly show slower wind speeds aloft to the north, while our southern storms show much higher wind speeds aloft and even some divergent signatures to the southwest of our event. A few of these southern storms would eventually become severe. This product will be beneficial to short term operations in confirming local objective analysis.

Our case also required us to look at information without utilizing radar. The GREMLIN product filled the role of radar data, but some notable issues were present. The GREMLIN latency approached 20 minutes at time, which really makes the product unusable for real time warning operations. However, discussion with the developers indicated that some of these latency issues could be overcome. The utility in the product comes from its visual representation. Forecasters are used to looking at radar data, and this product offers something similar. Latency issues must be overcome for it to be usable in operations. The product overlaid with real time lightning data would offer utility in areas with poor radar coverage or during times of significant radar outages. After working a few days with the other products, the GREMLIN utility really became evident in the absence of regular radar data. An example is shown below.