Storms surging in northeast Texas

As we begin today's HWT shift, storms are already developing quickly. ProbSevere LightningCast was able to readily give objective probabilistic guidance on the next-hour probability of lightning for these storms, which developed under clear skies.

Figure 1: LightningCast probabilities (contours), GOES-16 ABI daytime cloud phase distinction RGB (background), and GOES-16 GLM flash-extent density (orange-foreground). 

The Dallas / Fort Worth metro is seeing severe hail from these rapidly developing storms. The GOES-R satellite growth rates are contributing to high probabilities of severe for both ProbSevere v2 and v3 (huge CAPE and effective shear doesn't hurt, either). 

Figure 2: ProbSevere v3 contours, MRMS MergedReflectivity, and NWS severe weather warnings for storms near the Dallas / Fort Worth metro.