Lightning Initiation in Texas and Florida

Forecasters are working in west Texas (Lubbock and Midland) and Tampa, Florida. Forecasters in both regions have noted 30 minutes of actionable lead time to lightning initiation in a number of these storms. Figures 1 and 2 show the evolution of LightningCast probabilities with GOES-16 ABI and Earth Networks total lightning points. Several forecasters have noted that it would be nice to have more flexibility in choosing LightningCast probability contour levels. Currently, the contours are customizable, but it requires a CAVE restart.

Flash rates are high in Florida, but quite low in Texas (especially early on in the storms' development). Forecasters have noted how ProbSevere v3 seems to be more resistant to these differences in flash rates, not overemphasizing the higher flash rates or underemphasizing the lower flash rates in the respective regions.