Storm on the High Plains

A storm developed quickly in eastern Wyoming, but the lowest tilts from the KUDX radar were partially blocked by the Black Hills in western South Dakota. Fortunately, ProbSevere utilizes MRMS, which merges nearby radars observations. However, in this part of the country, the "nearby" radars are not all that close. ProbSevere v3 also uses GOES-R satellite growth rates and output from the GOES ABI+GLM-based IntenseStormNet, which capitalizes on storm-top patterns in visible and long-wave IR bands, and internal electrification. 

In this storm, the GOES-R satellite growth rate helped contribute to higher PSv3 early on this storm's life. You can see the growing towers in GOES ABI imagery (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Growing Cb in northeast Wyoming

ProbSevere v3 (PSv3) was 15-30% greater than ProbSevere v2 for this storm, 15-20 minutes before the first warning was issued. Part of the reason for this was the 4.4%/min satellite growth rate, which was designated as "strong". An HWT forecaster noted that PSv3 had a good handle on this storm.

Figure 2: ProbSevere v3 at the time of the first warning.