Springfield Illinois Storms

Right now I'm analyzing the various new products to nowcast where and when storms will intensify. Currently I'm comparing ALLsky cape to the mesoanalysis from the spc. Right now the mesoanalysis is higher with cape compared to allsky. Over our area the it's cloudy so the it's taking data from the GFS.

A cell in our western counties ramped up very quickly while our computers were down. Prob severe immediately directed our eye to the cell. The probsevere lined  up with an uptick in vil values and the threat for damaging winds



I'm comparing the actual sounding to what's shown on nucaps, and allsky. Trying to see what's initializing the best. The actualy sounding shows 3000kj of cape around 17z.



Around the same time allsky shows a similar value of cape.



Here's what the modified and unmodified nucaps are showing.
I'm also looking at GLM products to see trends with convection. The combination of event density and glm minimum flash area help me to see the rapidly growing updrafts as well as cell that are producing hail. That's the case right now. My warned cell is producing penny size hail.