Tornadic storm in Pecos Co. Texas

A strong supercell has been churning since at least 20:00 UTC in southwest Texas. A strong satellite growth rate helped boost the ProbHail and ProbWind models until 20:30 UTC, when radar metrics (and later the flash rate) increased dramatically. An official NWS tornado warning was issued at 21:25 UTC and a tornado was reported at 21:48 UTC. Baseball-sized hail was reported along with the tornado. The vertical cyan and red lines in the ProbSevere time series (top left graph) mark the tornado and report times.  The time series also show a steady ramp up in ProbTor due mainly to increasing MRMS AzShear. The storm continues to be tornado-warned at the time of this post (23:20 UTC).

Figure 1: ProbSevere time series readout.