We had given some thought about operating in Kentucky or Virginia with one group today, so we have been paying a bit of attention in the eastern US. One storm west of Washington DC had ProbSevere, specifically ProbWind rapidly rise this afternoon, while most storms had ProbWind remain 5% or less. The figure below shows the rapid increase of ProbWind (blue, upper left) and the black line at 1905 UTC represents a wind report of trees down blocking a road.
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| ProbSevere time series from the ProbSevere website. The upper left panel show the time trends of the various ProbSevere models. Note how ProbWind rapidly increases between 1845 and 1900 UTC. A report of trees down blocking a road was received at 1905 UTC. |
-J. Sieglaff
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