A quick conversation with the forecasters from both CWAs (OUN and SJT) today, we reiterated a training point--the best way to use ProbTor is in a relative manner--are there any storms that stand out relative to their neighbors? Yesterday, environmental predictors resulted in relative high ProbTor values, but today the storms are in environments that are much more marginal. As such, ProbTor values are considerably lower than yesterday--so forecasters are looking for relative differences and not absolute values.
-J. Sieglaff
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