Thursday, May 2, 2019

ProbDryWind?

I was talking with forecasters from Rapid City and Grand Junction offices.  They often experience dry microbursts.  ProbWind often does not do very well with these type of wind events.  This is something us (as developers) are aware of and are working on improving.  The setup and ingredients for these type of wind events are physically quite different than their more moist counterparts.  One forecaster suggested instead of trying to incorporate it into ProbWind and adding to the ProbWind readout, to make a new entry in the ProbSevere family--ProbDryWind.  This is an interesting thought and something we will need to ponder and discuss.  The forecaster added, he couldn't envision a day where you would need both within a CWA--the environments are very different and a separate display/readout would reduce confusion.

-J. Sieglaff

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