-Alexander T.
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
ProbSevere Large Areas Impacting Threat Percentages
With this storm going through Milam and Burleson Counties in South Central Texas ProbSevere is saying 90%+ for ProbWind and only like 15% ProbTor. One possible reason for the lower ProbTor may be the large area that ProbSevere is tracking as one storm. Yes, it certainly is one large bowing line segment, but if you look at the AzShear Merged data in the lower right you can see localized maxima in Milam County. While there is not a defined couplet at this point there is some bookend vortex action going on in the area of the AzShear maxima. If the ProbSevere was broken into two different areas would the ProbTor and/or ProbWind be even higher for the Milam County storm due to the locally higher AzShear? I would say probably so! Because ProbSevere is encompassing the entire line segment the values of AzShear going into ProbSevere are probably dampened some from the less active southern part of the storm.
-Alexander T.
-Alexander T.
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Alexander T,
ReplyDeleteThat is part of what's going on, since percentile AzShear values are used in ProbTor (as well as the max 0-2km AzShear). Another reason the ProbTor value is being damped is due to the huge amount of MLCIN (200 J/kg). In a bulk analysis, we found CIN to be a pretty useful predictor. However, if the RAP model does a poor job with handling the placement/intensity of CIN, it has the detrimental effect of curbing ProbTor values.