Wed forecast for ICT first thoughts

Developing storms to the west expected to continue to grow in coverage and strength as they move NE into ICT area this afternoon. Instability remains very high w/ MLCape ~2500 and deep layer shear in excess of 50kt. Soundings from LMN and OUN at 17 & 18Z showed a small cap further south with better low level turning. Soundings further north were more straight and slightly longer indicating splitting cell potential at ICT. A weakness in winds around 700 mb remains a concern through the day as the LLJ strengthens near sunset and enlarges the lower part of the hodograph. Discrete storms will be hard to maintain but there could be one or two in advance of storm clusters moving east late in the afternoon. Main threat will be hail and wind with the best tornado threat across the western 1/3rd of ICT's area before mode goes linear. - S Coulomb