Warning Decision

My severe t-storm warning (2nd one) was about to expire with the storm on the edge of severe.  MESH was .97.

I decided to extend it for another 30 mins.  Even though the ProbSevere values were low..I haven't been able to go off those values this time.  GLM still showed a higher value on Event Density and Total Energy.  So I went with a warning.  (warning box was too long..I forgot to change the shape!)

 

Just after I issued all values dropped a bit again.  The GLM data starting to slighting decrease too but in the 5 minute scan the lightning data still looked strong enough that the storm might pulse up again.

The ProbSevere values have been too low in this area of the country and in this scenario.  (Billings WFO)  I keep putting more weight on the MESH with GLM data and dbz values.


-Penny Gardens