Waiting for Convective Initiation in Iowa

Overnight storms continue across northern Iowa. This activity has left an outflow boundary to the south straddling northwestern counties of the CWA. Modest theta-e advection ahead of approaching vort lobe moving out of the Dakotas with temps climbing into the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in upper 40s to mid 50s. Expecting convection to fire up later this afternoon around max heating along the remnant outflow/frontal boundary in northern/western Iowa. Strong winds primary threat with steep lapse rates and DCAPE values 800-1000 J/kg. As of 1900Z, GOES Convective Initiation prob 0-2 hours only showing 10-20%. Tongue of instability nosing quickly into western Iowa as well as evident via AllSkyLAP Layer CAPE of 1000-1600 J/kg.

- Jack Swigert