UNR - Large discrepency between ProbSevere CAPE & all-sky CAPE

2340Z: Prob severe is showing two likely severe storms with ProbHail greater than 90% across SW SD & W NE. The northern storm is in an environment of ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE & the southern one near Scottsbluff, NE ~2100 J/kg based on values from ProbSevere. The all-sky CAPE product was very low compared to ProbSevere only suggesting 300-400 J/kg CAPE with the northern storm & 500-600 J/kg with southern one. The strength in the all-sky product is with identifying spatial patterns & temporal trends in instability, but i find it really hard to trust in this event with values that low.

2316Z ProbSevere/MRMS RALA:

23Z LAP all-sky CAPE:

Peter Sunday