Just took a look at an area where some convection developed across central OH. The Severe CI Prob product indicated a low potential for severe TS development, which appears to have been the case. The CI Prob product indicated > 50% chance of CI for 3-4 consecutive time periods. Convection did develop in the area, which, interestingly looks like it was in an area of outflow boundary convergence (at least, it looked like that to me on the vis sat imagery I used in conjunction with the CI products).
2002Z (note the somewhat continuous, but still splotchy, areas in green, especially S of the broken line of convection):
2007Z:
2012Z:
2037Z (A few cells with reflectivity values > 50 dBZ have developed within the "area" that the CI Prob highlighted as > 50% for more than 2 consecutive time periods):
- Thomas Bell
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