Severe CI Evaluation - ABQ

[19:00 UTC) As a forecaster for WFO ABQ, certainly the attention of the day has already been drawn to the ongoing convection in the western and southern portions of the CWA. However, in review of the various GOES-East imager suite of products (GOES-West temporal scales were a bit coarser and thus not ideal for rapidly-evolving situations like this case), decided to take a look at the Severe Convective Initiation (CI) Probability data. While the domain of data doesn't quite stretch far enough west to take a look at ongoing strong to severe convection in the western and southern parts of the area, did notice that the Severe CI probability was a bit jumpy with some fair weather cu in my east (with thin cirrus overhead, too).

 

Fig. 1: GOES-East Imager Severe CI Probabilities from 18:17z to 18:32z

Fig. 2: GOES-East Channel 2 Vis from 18:17z to 18:32z 

Certainly this product will provide immense value when there is some temporal continuity, but in this case, its noisiness (jumping from 0% to 77% and back to 0% in consecutive frames) was disregarded for the time being. Will hope to see better temporal continuity for improved interpretation and operational utilization. 

Rosie Red