For the second storm, probabilities increased to 84% with MESH only at 0.41". Similar to the first storm, probabilities were high despite the lower MESH given a favorable environment and lightning. Given my experience with the first storm (low MESH but high ProbSevere probabilities), the increasing probabilities in this situation led me to issue a severe thunderstorm warning, again slightly earlier than I may have based on the all tilts depiction. This storm went on to produce severe hail.
- Bucky
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