RGB of convective initiation

I found this capture of convective initiation to be interesting and cool to watch. As dry air on the south side of the MCV advected east into far western AR, storms would fire near the state line. The Day Cloud Phase Distinction shows this cycle very well and provides a nice optical depth to the satellite loop.

Fig 1. Mid-level water vapor loop showing dry air advecting into western Arkansas on the south side of the MCV.

Fig 2. Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB depicting convective initiation on OK/AR state line on the leading edge of the dry punch.

I was looking for any obvious signal in the lightning data for that point but nothing significant seemed to stand out for this case. That said, it is producting consistently high Flash Event Density with relatively high Total Energy values and low to moderate Average Flash Area.

Fig 3. Clockwise beginning with upper-left image:  Flash Event Density 2 minute data (1 minute update), Average Flash Area 2 minute data (1 minute update), Total Power 2 minute data (1 minute update), ENTLN 5 minute data (1 minute update).

It was interesting, however, that the AllSkyLAP CAPE for this area was quite muted. Makes me wonder if this isn't a function of the model first guess. Since the sky was cloudy and the satellite data relied more heavily on the GFS (which was convectively contaminated), I didn't find this data particularly useful.

Fig 3. AllSkyLAP CAPE product showing CAPE values < 350 J/kg over eastern OK and western AR. This is using primarily the GFS background information.

Fig 4. GFS QPF for 18Z. The convective contamination likely resulted in erroneous CAPE values on the AllSkyLAP product.

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