ProbWind Underdone and Missed a Warning

Here is a 50 minute loop of 0.5 Velocity data from BGM.  Notice the strong area of winds approaching the radar.  It's around 50 kt a few thousand feet off the surface.  The second image measures 52 kt at 2,500 feet AGL.  But ProbWind reported 1% probability for virtually the entire time.  This is massively underdone.  Why?  50 kt is Severe Thunderstorm Warning criteria.  If this wind a few thousand feet above ground mixes down to the surface, then it's easily SVR criteria.  Yet the ProbWind is only 1%.

So what happened?  At 1927Z (image three) NWS BGM reported tree limbs and wires down on Timberline Drive.  This matches up fairly well with the general location highlighted in image two.  If forecasters were relying solely on ProbWind, they would have missed a warning.  It needs to factor the SRM and Velocity data into the calculations.  Otherwise, forecasters may not be as confident in the ProbWind data.

 

-Kevin