ProbSevere was utilized in DDC as an overlay on base radar reflectivity. The progression of probabilities is displayed in the animation and individual images below. From 2008 to 2010 UTC, ProbHail jumped from 39% to 58%, based on a slight increase in MESH from 0.40" to 0.51". and flash rates increasing from 6 to 16. From 2010 to 2012, ProbHail increased to 95% and MESH to 0.73" and flash rate to 34. This is valuable to note: Despite MESH still well below 1", ProbSevere is at 95%, indicating high likelihood of severe (hail in this case). A key driver being favorable lightning in a favorable shear environment. The rapid trend up in probs combined with high probs helped to provide confidence in the warning decision. This despite the fact that MESH was still well under 1", and the reflectivity core was still on it's way up, but not quite to where I would want it for my typical warning decision. This storm quickly produced melting 1" hail, and later 1.5" hail.
- Bucky
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