ProbSevere has been running hot, with probability of hail and probability of wind, pulsing into the 30-50% and 60-80%, respectively for many storms across the DMX WFO. Thus far no severe reports have been received. In discussing the environment with the DMX team, we are wondering if the shear is too high for the amount of instability, which is shearing the tops off developing storms, preventing storm organization. The tops being sheared off can be seen in 1 minute GOES-16 visible imagery (not shown). One silver lining would be ProbSevere Version 2 probabilities are 10-40% lower than the ProbSevere Version 1--illustrating the better calibration of probabilities in ProbSevere Version 2 relative to Version 1 (although still too high for the small sample size of a few hours this afternoon in the DMX region).
-J. Sieglaff
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