Wednesday, May 2, 2018

ProbSevere example over far Southwestern Oklahoma

Thunderstorms were developing along and ahead of the dryline over the far eastern Texas panhandle and pushing into the western Norman, OK WFO.  ProbSevere All Hazards (aka ProbSevere Version 2) showed severe hail and severe wind threats increasing between 1938 and 2000 UTC 02 May 2018 (Figure 1).  The forecasters over the Norman WFO were evaluating some other products at this time, but were keeping an eye on the ProbSevere values.  The forecasters noted the good lead-time provided by ProbSevere as the first severe hail report was received at 2010 UTC (1.00").
Figure 1. MRMS Composite Reflectivity and ProbSevere Version 2 (All Hazards) contours valid 1938 - 2000 UTC 02 May 2018.  The storm of interest very near the southwestern portion of the Norman WFO is highlighted with AWIPS ProbSevere storm attribute readout.


-J. Sieglaff

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