ProbSevere Aids in Experimental Tornado Warning

The forecasters in the Wichita, KS CWA noted ProbSevere tornado probability rapidly increased on a supercell thunderstorm that developed just ahead of a large severe squall line.  Figure 1 shows KICT 0.5 degree storm-relative velocity and ProbSevere probability of tornado contours rapidly increasing from 13% at 2048 UTC to 70% at 2056 UTC.  The velocity data shows a very strong, tight circulation.   The jump of the probability of tornado alerted the warning forecaster and after a very quick radar interrogation, he issued an experimental tornado warning at 2100 UTC.

Figure 1.  KITC 0.5 degree storm relative velocity and ProbSevere Version 2 tornado probability, highlighting the supercell ahead of the squall line valid 2048-2056 UTC 02 May 2018.

-J. Sieglaff