A look at the environment across the BGM area ahead of the approaching convection confirmed weak instability with MUCAPE <1000 J/kg on the RAP forecast sounding near Mt. Vernon. A NUCAPS sounding in the same location an hour earlier depicted greater available instability (almost 1500 J/kg). Boundary layer temperatures were similar on both but NUCAPS showed a more moist profile. The big difference was the warm layer above 500 mb depicted on the RAP sounding and nearby ALY 12Z run. NUCAPS did not have this warm layer and therefore higher overall CAPE values. - SCoulomb



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