MK-Thursday Prob Severe Review &

Mesoscale 1 on RGB Split Water Vapor, toggle to Day Cloud Convection

The RGB Day Cloud Convection image has become my image of choice to enhance my multi-dimensional thinking of the storm environment due to the color bank and the resolution.
Our focus was Raleigh, but since my broadcast DMA combines 3 different WFOs, I looked at the line of storms developing over the western Piedmont/Foothills.

Prob Severe Wind Over RNK Velocity appears to be running hot with only one or two confirmations of a wind report with a tree down in Yadkin County and Henry county VA. There were several reports of pea to Quarter Size Hail with consistent quarter size hail reports as the storm progressed to the ENE out of the RNK area form Mount Airy into VA. 4 Panel evolution shows a lower percentage of hail possibility of 10 percent after it has already verified hail and then a higher wind prob of about 50% without verification at 19:12 Z.


 Prob Severe Wind Over RNK Velocity  with only one confirmation of a wind report with a tree down in Henry county..., several reports of pea to Quarter Size Hail from Mount Airy into VA. 4 Panel evolution shows a lower percentage of hail possibility of 10 percent after it has already verified hail and then a higher wind prob of about 50% without verification at 19:12 Z.

 This trend is clear as well with the pulse thunderstorm that drops golf ball size hail at 21:25z as seen by this series of 4 panels.

 Notice by adding GLM Total energy here this appears to be a better indicator of storm intensity if not type of severe storms. Typically in this region from a historical perspective using ENI data combined with reflectivity, this is an excellent predictor and indicator of severe hail along with storm heights, and watching developing 'hail' tracks as provided by WSI which is the shear tracks as we track the storms.  Granted, this is a messier presentation than many would like, but I find it interesting that this type of layer comparison with GLM and reflectivity/velocity may be a better indicator of storm intensification than the current ProbSevereProduct. At this time, I would rarely imagine using the ProbSevereAll Product alone and would likely never choose percentages. Hearst Television Meteorologists are using a scale from None, Low, Moderate, High to describe the type of severe impact. The more details we can convey will be helpful as we still hear our viewers in large numbers comment that they were unaware a tornado was possible with "those storms."

For a verification of the ProbWind increase (catch-up) I chose the velocity in a single panel. The Northern section of the storm pushing into Henry County does eventually verify with trained spotter reports of trees down, but most reports are quarter size hail. 

This RGB and ProbModel shows still after verification at the surface the hail model hasn't been responsive-only to 10-20% Prob.

Watching developing storms from GSP to RAH warning area with Severe Prob Hail overlaying the RGB Day Cloud Convection Product.
Severe Prob 4Panel at 22:24Z just before the golf ball size hail /wind reports with lower left panel indicating low level rotation in yellow, blue  hail tracks & GLM in right panel shows higher total Energy growing North. ProbWind Model is performing poorly still as a forecast tool as storm reports verify wind damage & possible microburst indicated.

 Below I used RGB images and a combination of All-Sky Lap like CAPE and Simple Water Vapor in the RGB allow for some gradient perspectives with layering shear tracks and GLM to continue monitoring storm growth and possible intensification that the GLM often seems to match.

 

MK