Moderately High Severe CI Prob for consecutive time periods...did intense convection initiate in the area highlighted?

Across E-cntrl NE, the Severe CI Prob had an area of > 60% for several consecutive time periods over what looked like developing convection. Stepping ahead in time a bit, severe convection did not appear to develop within the convective clouds that the Severe CI Prob product identified as having a pretty decent potential of becoming severe. However, intense storms did develop at the far southern extent of the "general area" that the Severe CI Prob product identified as having a > 60% severe CI potential. The jury is still out regarding out regarding how useful the Severe CI Prob product is.

2002Z:

2007Z:

2012Z:

2107Z:

- Thomas Bell