Tuesday, May 22, 2018

GLM FED vs ED with GOES-16 Ch 13 and Day Cloud Convection

I can see some utility to using 5-min/1-min update GLM Event Density when forecasting storm intensification. I compared both the 5-min/1-min update GLM Flash Extent Density (FED) and the 5-min/1-min update GLM Event Density (ED), also showing IR and Day Cloud Convection at the same time(s) as a storm along the central MD / N VA border strengthened pretty rapidly over a 15-min period.

Throughout the strengthening process, the 5-min GLM ED picked up on the strengthening updraft/strengthening process better than the 5-min GLM FED, as evidenced by the high number of events in the ED product vs lower numbers in the FED product. One can also see the development very clearly in the IR image (cloud top cooling) and Day Cloud Convection (bubbling up of the convective cloud and beginning of the anvil spreading) in the three images below.

As Event Density numbers can get pretty high (they reached 207 per 5 min in this small storm), I would recommend making the gradient in the color bar above 100 events stand out a lot better; half the bar is a blue color, which is less than 20 events...probably not that useful for a 5-min product.

1849Z (except IR, which is 1847Z):


1855Z (except IR, which is 1857Z):


1904Z (except IR, which is 1902Z):

- Thomas Bell

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