Significant instability is currently observed across the Southern Plains. AllSkyLAP CAPE values on the order of 3000-3500 J/kg were detected over north central OK and southern KS. Surface temperatures in the lower 90s were already allowing storms to develop as of 19z with more widespread convection anticipated over the next few hours.
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| Fig 1. AllSkyLAP CAPE at 1900 UTC. |
Deep-layer shear is not optimal for the development of supercells today, but effective bulk wind difference ~30 kts will support mutlicellular convection along the quasi-stationary front and southward in the vicinity of the dryline. Expect multicell clusters to develop this afternoon, providing a significant hail threat given the steep mid-level lapse rates (NUCAPS 700-500 mb lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km) and ample buoyancy. As cold pools begin to develop in a deep mixed boundary layer, storms will likely grow upscale into several loose multicell systems with the severe weather threat transition more toward wind.
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| Fig 2. NUCAPS 18 UTC sounding near KPNC. |
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