Forecast 5/16/18

An MCV from overnight convection is located over northeast OK and will drift eastward over the Ozarks later this afternoon. Moderate instability is observed over much of AR with AllSkyLAP CAPE values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.  The 12z raob from LZK indicated a fair amount of instability aloft, aided by relatively steep lapse rates from near 700mb through approx 550 mb. The AllSkyLAP PWAT was ~1.3" at 12z which compared very nicely to the 1.33" observed by the raob. Relatively dry air was observed aloft per the AllSkyLAP 0.7-0.3 sigma PWAT.  MLCAPE is progged to increase to around 2000 J/kg this afternoon with a DCAPE just over 1000 J/kg.

Fig 1. Split Water Vapor depicting MCV over northeast OK.

Fig 2. MCV evident in the high-level water vapor imagery.

Storms are ongoing over the Ozarks, but are expected to increase in coverage across the state throughout the afternoon in the weakley capped, low-shear environment. Shear will be limited today given the overall weak synoptic flow and vicinity of the aforementioned MCV. In general, anticipate strong to marginally severe, pulse ordinary cells but a few multicellular clusters are possible should storms develop strong enough cold pools. The primary hazards will be hail up to 1 inch in diamter and localized damaging winds.

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