that will move through the NE US this afternoon and evening,
forcing across central NC will be rather weak, limited to mainly
weak near sfc convergence, as the surface trough crosses the area.
However, strong daytime heating, featuring afternoon temps in the
mid 80s, will result in steep low-level lapse rates. These steep low-
level rates when coupled with with BL dewpoints in the lower 60s,
will fuel moderate instability of 1500-2000 J/Kg that extends well
into the mixed phased region. Despite the deep westerly flow in
place, majority of the CAMS indicate a fairly congealed multi-cell
line segment crossing the area between 18z to 03z. Given 20 to 25
kts of deep layer shear, some of the strongest updrafts will have
the potential to produce severe weather, including, hail and
damaging wind gusts.
Hampered by slow computer systems Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday:(
Notice low correlation between -20 C Isothermal Reflectivity & GLM Total Energy 5min-1min update. Notice storm near the cursor.
In this example the storm is on the northern RAH CWA border, the updraft has pushed 50-60dbz echoes up through the -20 C isotherm, notice this time the GLM Total Energy and the Extent Density (# of Flashes that have crossed a pixel) are both showing high values. This would be a good situation awareness tool during an ongoing severe weather event. This storm was currently producing damaging hail and strong winds.
ProbSevere Wind and Hail:
 |
| 1.75" hail was reported at 5:25 pm near Bahama. |
 | |
| 3NW of Stovall 2 Trees Down |
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