Monday, May 14, 2018

Convective Initiation Product

Given the strong instability across the region, I was anticipating a greater signal in the CI product. AllSkyLAP CAPE values sstill exceeded 2500 J/kg in the area and Cu were finally beginning to bubble up, but the CI product showed little in the way of probabilities.

Fig 1.  AllSkyCAPE indicating 2500+ J/kg at 2200 UTC.

Fig 2. CI Probability product at 2237 UTC.



I'm sure there are other limiting factors that I'm not taking into account but I found this discrepancy and departure from my conceptual model to be interesting.

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